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| "The Bush Era is at an end" --- The Scotsman |
Erewhon |
04/23/06 |
GEORGE Bush is not yet halfway through his second presidential term, but power is visibly draining from the White House. Republicans who were once his cheerleaders now barely mention his name: elections are coming, and it is time for them to ditch the president.
The gains from Bush's spectacular presidential victory just 18 months ago have entirely vanished. Like Tony Blair, he has seen his personal authority buried in the quagmire of Iraq and found the political world waiting impatiently for his departure.
But in Britain, we at least know that the power leaving 10 Downing Street is going towards Gordon Brown. In America, it is obvious that Bush is the loser - but it is by no means clear to whom power is gravitating towards.
The Democrats, as a party, are optimistic. The Iraq war is finally catching up with Bush and his party: for the first time since the 11 September attacks, the Republicans are now seen as the weaker of the two parties on national security.
A remarkable 30% of Americans now want immediate withdrawal from Iraq, twice the level of two years ago. This is not Democrat policy, but it indicates irritation with Bush and is an encouraging sign for this leaderless party ahead of the November elections.
So the Democrats are planning a summer of patriotic protest. One leaked battle plan shows they will lay on anti-Bush rallies using serving soldiers outside military barracks. The Republicans' only defensive strategy is to distance themselves from Bush.
Meanwhile, the Hillary Clinton machine grows stronger. The New York senator has assembled a formidable team which already looks superior to the White House, drawing on reconvened heavyweights from the Bill Clinton era.
Names like Ann Lewis, a renowned strategist, pollster Mark Penn and Terry McAuliffe, a fundraiser and likely UK ambassador under Mrs Clinton, are becoming central figures around the "Friends of Hillary" group which is preparing for power.
She is a divisive figure, hated in the Bible Belt - but then Bush was hated just as much in the urban areas. And she has made inroads into rural areas of New York State which have similar dynamics to the dozen or so swing states which decide US elections.
Every speech Mrs Clinton makes has one eye on wavering Republican voters, and there are few in Washington who would not describe her as the overwhelming favourite to be the Democrats' candidate for president. There is less agreement on who she would face.
Journalists fantasise that it will be Condoleezza Rice. To have an all-woman presidency race is such an alluring prospect that some have convinced themselves it is true - but the smarter money says Condi will run as a vice-president, if she stands at all.
The reason, often forgotten in Britain, is that she is not a politician and has never stood for elected office. She is an academic who became an adviser and who was then appointed Secretary of State - when she denies ambitions for the presidency, she is being sincere.
While Rudy Giuliani is the most popular figure, the former New York mayor is pro-gay rights and pro-choice on abortion. He may well win more votes in America, but may have trouble getting the Republican nomination for presidency: if he tries.
So the favourite to fight Hillary is Senator John McCain, who would stand as a 72-year-old Vietnam veteran and a far less divisive figure than Bush. He polls well amongst Democrats and has spent much time joining forces with them to forge legislation.
When he ran for president in 2000 he was easily eclipsed by Bush - but as he remarked on Friday, "six years ago, nobody knew me". Now, he is popular on both sides and speaks about Iraq with an eloquence that Bush's supporters wish the president had.
McCain's liability on one issue may still explode on to the political scene, however: immigration. Bush wants to grant amnesty to the 11 million illegal immigrants in America, mostly Hispanics, believing they will repay the Republicans with votes.
Some 70% of Americans are against it. Conservatives believe lawbreakers are being rewarded, and low-paid American workers fear Bush is colluding with employers to keep wages down by giving citizenship to dirt-poor Latinos.
It says much about Bush's lack of power that it took McCain to deliver the legislation in a compromise the senator negotiated last week. If McCain's plan succeeds, it will make him a target for protest amongst those whose votes he will depend upon for the presidential nomination.
The dark horse Republican candidate is Mitt Romney, governor of Massachusetts - a Republican elected to run one of the most left-wing states in America. He is a Mormon, which many Bushies consider apostasy, but has a proven ability to win votes.
On his fundraising tours (lately to McCain's home state of Arizona) he has performed well on the stump - cracking jokes about his religion and drawing laughter and admiration from the type of people who would, in another era, have burnt him at the stake.
Impressively, Romney has brokered a scheme for universal health provision in Massachusetts using an innovative mix of personal payments, business charges and state subsidy. Even Mrs Clinton backs the plan: it could be a template for the whole of America.
So the scene is set for a McCain v Romney battle for the Republican nomination - taking on Mrs Clinton and her formidable team. Bush is left an increasingly lonely and irrelevant figure, from whom aspirational Republican politicians recoil.
You can see it on the cars of Washington. The "Kerry-Edwards" stickers are hopelessly outdated, yet are still stuck to bumpers because their owners have not been bothered to remove them. But the name "Bush" has been whipped off every vehicle in Washington.
The Democrats sense an end to their long wilderness.
If they win back the chamber in November, they will seek to humiliate Bush and exact revenge for the impeachment of Bill Clinton, who could soon be back at the White House, in the First Lady's wing.
Power seldom lives at one address in Washington. It slides between Congress, the Supreme Court and the White House - where it had stayed for six years. But no more. The presidency may have two more years to run, but the Bush era is already over.
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