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| Attacks grow more sophisticated, ruthless |
CeeBee |
09/16/04 |
from the Chicago Sun-Times
September 16, 2004
BY KIM HOUSEGO
BAGHDAD, Iraq -- The scale and sophistication of militant attacks in Iraq are steadily increasing, with coordinated strikes and complicated ambushes that increasingly hit their targets, officials and analysts said Wednesday.
The spike in bloodshed -- more than 200 dead in four days -- has stifled American hopes that the transfer of sovereignty and the prospect of a democratic vote in four months could take the steam out of the uprising and pave the way for a reduction in U.S. troops.
Instead, there are signs the Americans and their Iraqi allies are facing an enemy more determined than ever. Insurgents have learned from mistakes and shifted strategy, cooperating more closely with each other and devising new ways to put their relatively simple arsenal to treacherous use.
"More thought is going into the execution of the attacks," said Lt. Col. Paul Hastings of Task Force Olympia, which is trying to bring stability to a swath of northeastern Iraq.
Sustained onslaughts
Militants now follow up roadside bomb attacks with a deluge of rocket-propelled grenades instead of fleeing, or fire off mortar rounds to lure soldiers out of their base and into freshly laid mine fields, military commanders say.
In a July attack in Samarra, for example, militants detonated a car bomb and then hammered a military headquarters with a mortar barrage as troops fled the building. Five American soldiers died.
At least 47 people were killed in a car bombing in Baghdad on Tuesday targeting would-be police recruits, the deadliest single strike in the capital in six months.
"The enemy has been able to construct IEDs [Improvised Explosive Devices] that are more complex, include more rounds in the form of a 'daisy chain,' and tend to have a higher lethality," said Maj. Neal O'Brien of the Army's 1st Infantry Division.
O'Brien also said that an increase in the use of car bombs in the last two months coincided with an influx of foreign fighters with the bomb-making know-how in July.
"They graduated to more coordinated attacks," he said.
Analysts say the plethora of armed groups behind the insurgency are increasingly working together.
"As time goes on, various gangs get together and it does become more coordinated," said Judith Kipper, a Middle East expert at the Council on Foreign Relations. "Groups start small, get know-how and become more lethal over time."
Acts of desperation?
American commanders, however, insist the stepped-up attacks and the possibility of increased cooperation among militant groups are signs that the insurgents have realized time is running out for them with the onset of elections in January.
"There is a level of desperation associated with the anti-Iraqi forces. They absolutely don't want to see free elections and reconstruction projects work," Hastings said.
But the attacks have fueled a growing backlash against the United States and interim Iraqi Prime Minster Ayad Allawi.
"The situation is getting worse day after day and the Americans are still in the streets," said Kawakib Butris, 40, a supermarket worker in Baghdad.
AP
Will there ever be peace in this country? How? When? |
Clarification/Follow-up by SanchoPanza on 09/16/04 8:48 pm:
The talk of "desperation" seems to be bravado given the facts.
If there are areas that the security forces cannot enter then clearly they do not have control of the entire country and therefore free elections cannot take place.
The best hope is that the insurgents are expending all efforts in the run up to the US election in the hope of discrediting the incumbant administation, but with the Iraqi elections time just two months ahead of that it may prove that they have the stamina to keep up their pressure, after all it has been nearly 16 months since the fall of Baghdad. Nearly 1000 coalition troops have died since Baghdad fell it seems that the initial invasion failed to shock and awe enough.
Clarification/Follow-up by tomder55 on 09/17/04 10:05 am:
The insurgency against the coalition has proved over and over again to be an unmitigating disaster .They have consistantly had disproportionate losses. The insurgency changed tactics . They attack the coalition forces ,and kidnap innocent westeners enough to keep violence in Iraq in the Western press .But their main focus has been attacks on Iraqis. Again this is good for some headlines but ultimately this tactic will fail .They create chaos for sure ,but the populace will ultimately harden against such tactics. The populace may want the coalition to leave no doubt but not at the risk of having terrorists in control.
Once elections occure ;(and I disagree with Sancho ;although including cities like Fallujah in the electoral process is preferable ,they certainly can be held without their cooperation but Fallujah would have to be pacified at a later time at the consent the elected Iraqi Government);the power vaccume that could cause a civil war would be filled.
What will happen ? I have warned for some time that the Bush adm. made a decision in April to take 1/2 measures on the battle front until this Nov. election . Twice we had al-Sadr in our grasps and twice we let him slip the noose. We have also let support for the jihadists flow into the country unchecked from Iran and Syria for the same reason .Because of our elections we have not made a response to Iran's unchecked march toward nuclear weapons . It was a big gamble.I said at the time that Iran and the jihadists may force our hands ,and that appears to be the case .With the approval of the Allawi led gvt. we have begun to again take agressive actions in Fallujah. We had the insurgency trapped there before and let them go .Since then they were able to dig in their defenses again so it will be another tough fight to supress them ;but it must be done .I prefer it would be finished before the U.S. elections but if not ;there are still 2 months after that for the Iraqi elections .In my view that should be enough time.
With a Kerry victory all bets are off. He has not sent clear signals ,but the one that resonates is that he has a time-line for withdrawal.Tell them how long they have to hold out ,and guaranteed they will hold out that long.
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