Question Details	Asked By	Asked On
Iraqi Elections	Choux	01/25/05
Looks like the Iraqi Elections are going to be a huge success! *Phew* Many of the people have gotten behind the idea of voting and having a say in their government. Actually, loving the idea. (Per polls)I hope that this potential success will prove America right for being pro active in going after the causes of Islamofascism. What are your thoughts about the upcoming elections?
Answered By		Answered On
tomder55		01/26/05
Most successful democracies today where elections were held for the first time in the past 100 yrs (India ;Philipines; Taiwan ; Brazil to name a few ) have had enormous ethnic and religious divisions in the beginning but stayed to the constitution and eventually embraced the concept of a nationalism that includes all major groups and ethnicities. Iraqis have developed some national consciousness since they became a country 80 years ago. In the war against Iran, hundreds of thousands of Iraqi Shiite soldiers fought bravely, even though Iran is Shiite. The Shiite leaders like Sistani today have decided to try to treat the Sunnis fairly ;even with the provocation from history and the recent Sunni terrorism; and decided to go for national unity. I think they have a good chance. The Opinion Journal said today : Behold these elections: they are not a prelude to civil war, as some of our sages continually warn. They are the substitute for a civil war. Indeed, the remarkable thing about the Shiites has been their restraint in the face of the terror that the remnants of the old regime and the jihadists have thrown at them. It is their leaders and their mosques and their weddings and their religious gatherings that have been the steady targets of the terror. It is their faith that Abu Musab al-Zarqawi and his band of killers continue to dismiss as a heresy at odds with Islam's "purity." Men are not angels. The Shiite restraint has rested on the hope that redemption shall come at the ballot box. We needn't be afraid of a Shiite electoral victory. The scarecrow that stayed America's hand in the first Gulf War ought to be seen for what it is. There is no "sister republic" of the Iranian theocracy in Iraq's future. The religious scholars in Najaf know that theirs is a country that differs from Iran; it is a checkered country of multiple communities. The Shiite secularists know this as well. Besides, the Iranian state next door offers no panacea today, only terrible economic and cultural sterility. It has been Iraq's luck that Ayatollah Sistani was there when most needed. A jurist of deeply quietist bent who embodies Shiism's historical aversion to political redemptionism, he has reined in the passions of his community. He has held out the hope that history could be changed without large-scale violence, and without millenarianism. Grant the old man his due. My best guess is that a Shiite slate of candidates that are supported by Sistani ; the United Iraqi List; will emerge as the leaders of the new government. This will bring Ahmed Chalabi back to position of prominance (smart move by State Dept. and CIA to alienate him ;or maybe their intention to discredit him was a ruse ? :> nyuk ). I think the days of Allawi being relevent are over or at least diminished . . He has done some good ,but he has not done as good as he could've ;particularily in the security area .He also may have been caught with his fingers in the cookie jar.I think that the Bush Adm. should embrace Chalabi again if he gains prominance and accept the outcome of the elections. Meanwhile this report shows that the overthrow of Saddam has SAVED Iraqi lives ;disputing the claim of 100,000 excess deaths of civilians .Even with all the violence today it was worse for the people under Saddam's rule. From this it is reasonable to dismiss the claim of 100,000 "excess deaths‚" since March, 2003 as entirely unreliable. The next anti-war source of information on Iraqi deaths is Iraqbodycount.net (IBC), which keeps a running count of what it calls Iraqi civilian casualties. In the first 16 months -- March 21, 2003 through July 21, 2004 -- IBC says between 11600 and 13574 died. But no effort is made to distinguish those killed by US action from those killed by the Iraqi army, or by the various Baathist, al-Qaeda, Ansar al-Islam, or Mehdi Army groups. Using Iraqbodycount's high figure of 13,574 civilian dead killed by all sides in Iraq, the toll is 3093 fewer than the number killed by Saddam's regime in a comparable period of time. Using the low figure of 11600 killed, 5067 fewer have been killed. Based on the war protesters own numbers, 3000 to 5000 more Iraqis are alive today because of the overthrow of Saddam. Consider where this country was before the coalition invasion . Mass murders by the government. Saddam and his cronies stealing great sums that were targetted to feed the people .Saddam in defiance of the world making a mockery of the UN.;his WMD not accounted for (it still isn't but at least we know they are not in his hands );supporting terrorism (definitely in Palestine;definitely harboring wanted terrorists ;definitely providing training areas for terrorist groups like the one Zarqwai leads ;most probably in some kind of an agreement with bin Laden).Saddam a threat to his neighbors ;having used chemical and biological weapons on both his external and internal enemies ;having destroyed much of the environment in the swamp areas of the country ;having blown up oil wells an/or releasing countless thousands of gallons of oil into the sea .No hope for a majority of the people who had before his Batthist reign of terror been leaders in Iraqi society . No longer is he that threat. His despotic days are over.He is being replaced with hope. A new political paradigm is in it's infancy there that will rock the Arab world .Zarqwai did not say last week he was waging war against occupation /imperialism . He declared war against 'democracy'.It is not sectarian .I think that many more Sunni's will opt to participate in the process than the press is willing to admit. Why ? Because to them the choice is not the status quo antibellum .Those days are gone forever. The choices being offered them today are Zarqwai's unique version of fundamentalism ,and liberty . I think the vast majority will choose liberty.

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