Question Details	Asked By	Asked On
Bush = Toast	excon	07/10/04
Hello politicos, They're neck and neck now, but how can a president who launched a bogus war that we're still stuck in the middle of, be re-elected? I think it's a bigger mistake than say, breaking into the Watergate and then lying about it, driving drunk and killing Mary Jo Kopeckni, getting your schlong gobbled in the white house and then lying about it, screwing Marilyn Monroe and then lying about it, or being a nice guy from Plains with a drunken brother. LBJ made a bigger one, but he recognized it. excon PS. You’re not truly going to argue that the war is a good thing even though we were mistaken, are you? Or, are you going to argue that the investigative committees were wrong in their assessments? The fearsome foursome (Elg, gade, Elliot and Tom) will probably take that route.
Clarification/Follow-up by excon on 07/10/04 11:29 am: Hello again, The last chapter in this colossal mistake has yet to be written. What I fear, is not that Bush started WWIII, but that he's blown our chances at winning it. excon Clarification/Follow-up by ETWolverine on 07/12/04 9:13 am: >>>Oh, Saddam was a prick. But there are plenty of pricks whom we leave alone.<<< Not anymore, we don't... not if they effect American interests. From now on, the USA will be VERY involved (either politically or militarily) with the pricks who effect us. In the era of global terrorism, we can afford no less. Clarification/Follow-up by ETWolverine on 07/12/04 9:31 am: Sorry, Excon, but I've never been a betting man. I only bet on sure things, and there are too many variables in play. A terrorist attack in the USA could change the entire equation, as could anything having to do with the trial of Saddam, the capture of Osama, military action in Faluja, or any other global-reaching event. Even a particularly good or particularly bad jobs report could change things. My prediction of a Bush win is predicated on the status remaining quo until November, which is probably an unlikely event. Gentleman's bet only... for the bragging rights. But for now, Bush by 10%, based on the way things stand now. Elliot Clarification/Follow-up by ETWolverine on 07/13/04 7:55 am: Bobby, What Reagan did in his final term in closing certain military bases was to stop UNNECESARY spending... he closed the least needed, least productive bases. And it was the right move. It allowed limited resources to be put to use where it did the most good. There is a huge difference between what Reagan did and what Carter and Clinton did before and after him (and what kerry has spent 2 decades trying to do)... cutting ALL military spending and closing down ANY military bases, regardless of their necessity or usefulness. Furthermore, as hard-core of a Republican as I am, I have voted for Democrats before when I thought them to be the better candidate. I voted for several Dems at the local level in the last 3 elections, because I didn't think their conservative/Republican counterparts were the right choice. So its not like I'm locked into a specific party. What I am locked into is a specific political and economic philosophy. I vote for the candidate that best meets my personal philosophy, whether Rep or Dem. It just so happens that at the national level, it is by-and-large Republicans that fit the bill as opposed to Democrats. As for my "fuzzy math", it's not quite so fuzzy as you might think. Bush is as much as 7 points ahead in some of the recent polls. Assuming that he gets only a 5-point bump from the GOP Convention in September, and assuming he can carry that bump into November 11, that gives him a 12-point lead over Kerry. And most expers are predicting a 10-15 point bump, not a 5-point bump. I'd say that my 10-point prediction is actually a pretty conservative estimate. Elliot
Answered By		Answered On
ETWolverine		07/12/04
The war was a good thing for MANY reasons, Excon, and you know it. 1) 25 million people are now free to choose their own leaders. They are no longer being tortured and murdered on a daily basis. 2) A supporter of terrorism has been deposed, and a mass murderer will be brought to trial. 3) The WMDs are still out there... they're just in Syria, not Iraq. 4) Bush is not only neck and neck with Kerry, Kerry can't seem to gain any ground, no matter what he does and no matter what Bush does. That means his support has maxed out. He didn't even get a much-needed bumb from naming Edwards to his ticket. He's finnished if he can't get ahead of Bush in the polles even when EVERYONE says he should have done so. On the other hand, Bush WILL get a bump in the polls at the GOP convention, and will carry that into the election. Bush by at least 10% of the popular vote. Elliot

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