Question Details	Asked By	Asked On
2004 Elections	USstudent244	10/13/03
Hello i have a question regarding the upcoming presidential election 2004. would you please assist me on this one. I just want to have a better concept for my class simulation. THANK YOU IN ADVANCE If I were to advise President Bush about his prospects for the 2004 election, what would I tell him about how the distribution of partisan identifiers in the electorate should affect his strategy in the general election?
Answered By		Answered On
stevehaddock		10/14/03
To win in 2004, Bush can't afford to lose more than a few small states unless he picks up a big one, like California or Pennsylvania. As such, he has to target swing constituencies in those states who have shown they might accept Republican policies for a second term. Generally speaking, Bush has to forget about the northeast for the most part. However, some swing groups in other states might be more supportive: - Older people tend to vote Republican, and Florida gets older and bigger by the moment. The new drug coverage plans could help here. - Young republicans are flocking to the party, primarily on moral issues (abortion, gay marriage) and they are more pro-military than older liberal Democrats. They could help carry California. - Core Republican support isn't going anywhere, but "marginal" Republicans, Democrats that voted Republican in the last election, will be a tough constituency to win over. However, Bush will have to work hard to keep marginally Republican states - one or two to the Democrats could tip the election. - Republican traditional support, like ranchers and small businessmen, might be hard to keep. Ranchers have been hurt by anti-environmental policies that harm their land. Small businessmen are hurting too, and they aren't sharing government largesse over the war. - Southern republicans are a difficult bunch. Unfortunately, this group, which used to vote heavily democrat, is all in favour of cutting programs to the poor. Howegver, supporting this constituency will have a backlash - black and Hispanic voters are usually Democrats, but Bush rightfully has good support with these groups. However, although they are turning Republican and are highly religious, they tend to be more socially liberal than Southern whites and Bush can't work to both groups at once. - Schwartzenegger Democrats might be a good group to target. However, Schwartzenegger managed to get a solid vote by appealing to gays, pro-choice and liberal elements, who are unlikely to support Bush. As such, the California Republican party, which is not a mirror of the party elsewhere but tends to be more liberal instead, could become polarized leaving the Democrats to run up the middle.

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